Economic Adjustment Module (EA). The third module incorporates a regional economic impact model to estimate total impacts on the economy of the study region(s) – including indirect effects due to inter-industry supplier-buyer linkages, induced effects generated by the recirculation of wages into the local economy and other dynamic adjustments over time.

The system is normally supplied with the GLOBAL INSIGHT macroeconomic model or the CRIO-IMPLAN multi-regional forecasting model, although it can also be used with REMI, REDYN, RIMS-II and other input-output models. In each case, the TREDIS-EA module aggregates direct impacts from the previous two modules to appropriate sectors, adjusts for double-counting, and formats the inputs based on the unique “policy-levers” of the economic model. In some cases, select direct travel impacts must be translated into direct economic impacts. These direct impacts are passed – along with project construction and O&M spending – to the economic model to determine regional increases in employment, output, and income.

ECONOMIC MODEL OPTIONS

The IMPLAN-CRIO option uses a multi-regional form of the IMPLAN economic impact model within a dynamic framework that includes time series forecasting and cost-response elements. This approach marries IMPLAN’s input-output multipliers with cost response elasticities to calculate how various industries absorb costs, invest in their own growth and/or pass on transport costs to other industries. Multipliers calculate indirect and induced impacts on household income, business sales and employment, and the pattern of impacts over time are calculated in a forecasting framework. This option is available for any size of study area, from multi-state regions down to the municipality level. The multi-regional IMPLAN model also provides information on domestic and international freight flows. IMPLAN is the most widely used local impact analysis model in the US. The IMPLAN-CRIO system works seamlessly within TREDIS, by agreement with MIG (the Minnesota Implan Group, Inc.).

The GLOBAL INSIGHT option uses the macroeconomic model of Global Insight for analysis of transport project impacts. This model was designed for short-term and long-term forecasting, and features the most highly detailed responses to changes in transport costs by mode and commodity. It utilizes econometric (statistical) equations that are sensitive to changes in transport costs per ton for transporting various commodities by different modes. It also provides detailed information on freight flows. Together, these features make the model ideal for freight-oriented studies. The Global Insight Model also forecasts changes in wages, prices and spending patterns. This model option is currently available at a state or multi-state level, though options for other levels of detail are also possible. The Global Insight Macroeconomic Model is the nation’s leading forecasting model for business and government. The GLOBAL INSIGHT system works seamlessly within TREDIS, by agreement with Global Insight, Inc.

The Adapter for Other Economic Models allows use of TREDIS with REMI, REDYN, RIMS-II, R/ECON and Canadian economic models, and it can also be customized for nearly any other input-output or economic impact analysis system. The Adapter translates the TREDIS measures of direct economic impact into the industrial classifications and variable definitions needed for each type of economic impact model. If the alternative is an input-output model (such as RIMS-II or R/Econ), then TREDIS can incorporate the model’s own multipliers into a variant of the Cost-Response Input-Output (CRIO) framework, allowing for seamless operation within the TREDIS system. If the alternative is an economic simulation model such as REMI or REDYN, then TREDIS can generate the necessary inputs to run that model.

Note: TREDIS® is a registered trademark of Economic Development Research Group, Inc., IMPLAN® is a registered trademark of Minnesota Implan Group, Inc. Policy Insight® is a registered trademark of Regional Economic Models, Inc.